Saturday, September 21, 2019

Off The Cuff

OFF THE CUFF - Saturday Week 3

We are diving deeper into particular players analyzing their "rest of season" (ROS) value

And Here We go.....

Our First Inquire, Waiver WRs

“Gotta fill a WR spot”: options we will look at: Sutton, Sanu, Corey Davis, Marquise Goodwin

Courtland Sutton

Sutton is coming off a season where many thought he would have a bigger role in the passing game. Well, they were a season early on those projections. Flacco brings a steady, strong-arm to Denver. This has bumped Courtland up to a must-add, spot start option. Sutton’s dynasty value will be high, while Flacco is there, and depending on who fills in once Flacco calls it a career.
Sutton has gotten a total of 15 targets and the average of 7.5 would remain his baseline, weekly. His TD output is concerning now but we will begin to see him grab some of those. His potential is through the roof with a 6’3” 218 frame and the ability to use the jump ball skills towards the endzone as well possessing decent speed to get by corners.
He will be someone to follow with the potential to do some big things for you in fantasy.

Mohammed Sanu

Sanu shares the field with Julio Jones as decent support for Matt Ryan. Sanu will only get the leftovers of the passing attack that is known to move the ball.
Sanu is a low floor, low upside guy. Ryan will be looking more towards Julio in the endzone, Sanu was limited to 4 TDs last season and 0 so far this season. His output is solely determined on if the Falcons fall behind in the coming games. Even when they need to rely strictly on the pass game being, across from Julio stunts his limited upside.
With only a few high scoring teams on the schedule, I don’t expect Sanu to hold any fantasy value in STD this season and the coming future, PPR adds a bit more value to him, if at all.

WR Corey Davis TEN

Davis has been a major disappointment for those expecting a breakout fantasy season for him. Unfortunately, Davis is held back by his QB. Mariota is not the guy to get Corey going.  The ability and potential of Corey Davis can only be matched by a few in this league, which is discouraging considering his team.
This is another one of those guys we will stay away from just due to his QB and the number of targets he is averaging is only 4 per game.

WR Marquise Goodwin PIT

Goodwin finds himself in a surprisingly high producing offense with the ball being spread out. Although, Goodwin will continue to see a limited amount of targets each week. If he breaks out one of these games with those targets, we should see his share go up. His history makes him spotty.
He will have bigger games with TDs but we shouldn’t see much change for Marquise in his 7th season.

The Second One, Dynasty/Sleepers

"ROS - Damiere Byrd, Ty Johnson, Diontae Johnson, Daniel Jones, Royce Freeman and DJ Chark. Thanks."

WR Damiere Byrd ARI

Byrd starts 2019 with 7 targets in each of the first two weeks. This WR, who is listed at 5’9” 162 lbs, is seeing the usage he has deserved since he has entered the league. The usage rate is, of course, something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. His injury history and size, unfortunately, will make him more susceptible to missing time, which is something to consider.
If he can remain healthy and sustain his usage rate, this speedy slot receiver could find value at least in dynasty and perhaps in redraft he progresses.

RB Ty Johnson DET
Johnson went from 9% of snaps to 21% in week 2. He could have some carries when Lions are up and potentially some goal-line work but truly limited at this point.
He is not on the waiver radar and ROS he is a handcuff for Kerryon

WR Diontae Johnson PIT
Johnson slides into the slot for the Steelers this week and the future can be bright. Diontae is a rookie out of Toledo who has a strong ability to make defenders miss in the open field. Taking short passes and creating yards after the catch. With 5 and 4 targets through week 1 and week 2 we can expect this to remain with Rudolph stepping into the starting QB position. Just like any other time a rookie QB is a ton of questions just waiting to be answered. Johnson looks to be someone who can get going on short slant and out routes.
This team already has JuJu and Washington on the outside. Johnson can be limited to start out but depending on how well Rudolph takes control, he can see a bump in production.
If Johnson can find a decent share of targets, we could be looking at a nice sleeper with decent deeper league value, as well as great dynasty value.

QB Daniel Jones NYG 
2019 No. 6 Overall draft pick by the Giants. He impressed in the preseason with 85.3% completion rate, 2 TD, 0 INT and a total of 416 yards. Daniel Jones looks to be an upgrade from Eli in both fantasy perspective as well as for this dilapidated team. We expect him to be more efficient in the pass game but could struggle with the team around him. We don’t see Daniel anywhere close to a starter in 1QB leagues and will have to prove himself a bit more to secure a spot in your 2QB leagues.
We expect this offense to rely on Barkley, He could end the season with a ceiling top 15 but with the limited weapons (Engram, Shepard, and Tate due to come back) we don’t see that happening.

RB Royce Freeman DEN
Royce through the preseason proved he is ready to take a bigger role in this offense. With Lindsay not holding his 2018 production level and Flacco being consistent under center we see a continued majority carries going to Royce.
Royce has one of the better upsides of anyone else in a committee. He is currently a high-end RB3 in fantasy

Chark came out Week 1 and destroyed! He and Minshew have proved any doubters wrong three consecutive weeks. Chark’s production through these three weeks looks to be the trend. We are excited to see how this season pan’s out for Chark and the Jaguars.
Chark averages 6 targets 1 TD a game thus far.
Chark is a WR3 with great upside as a young WR. He might not give you much value on the trade market just yet but that’ll change if he and Minshew can keep it going.

Assessing that high draft cost RB

@Chr1sd1az: Mixon ROS

RB Joe Mixon CIN

Mixon is a highly skilled RB. This man would be a beast on any team with a decent offensive line. Unfortunately, we have to witness this man stuck on a team that will not be able to give him any room to express the skills he possesses on any sort of consistency.
Mixon rest of season COULD end up on the back end of the top 25 RBs. This might be a hot take, especially for those that drafted in the 1st-2nd round this season. We see him having the ability of a top 5 guy. Too bad its a team sport.

These are the RBs I have over Mixon right now, in no particular order:
Cook, Barkley, Bell, Elliott, D. Johnson, Kamara, Henry, Chubb, K. Johnson, Ekeler, Gurley, A. Jones, Ingram, Josh Jacobs

Mixon rest of season is my 15th RB, with top 10 potential. Don't panic just yet but would sell if you get a chance after one of his bigger games.

by Matt Kuri

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