Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Waiver Wizard Week 11

Week 11

Waiver  Wizard by Travis Kent (@LaptopLombardi)
Laptop lombardi/Week 11
Week 11...I am legitimately upset at this point in the season.  We wait and wait…and wait all offseason to watch football and play fantasy football.  We are more than halfway through the NFL season, and there are only two weeks left in the fantasy regular season (if you play four playoff weeks/wk 16 championship). Regardless, there is less than half the NFL season left for us to enjoy, and it stinks.  I know I sound like a broken record every week, dreading the end of the season, so I will fill my glass up half-full and just enjoy the rest of the football we do have left. At this point, you probably know if you are going to make the playoffs in your league, or you might be right on the verge of that last playoff spot.
The Waiver Wizard is here to assist you in that venture to secure a playoff spot, or at least sure up your lineup with depth pieces for the playoffs.  Let’s get those dubs, people!   

*Notable Players on Bye:
QB: Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill.
RB: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Derek Henry.
WR: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Darius Slayton, Golden Tate, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Josh Gordon, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries.
TE: Jimmy Graham, Evan Engram, Rhett Ellison, Jacob Hollister, Jonnu Smith, Delanie Walker.

*Not an official logo _____________________________
Join the Waiver Wizard in finding some magic for your fantasy roster in Week 11, and beyond.
*All roster % is based on ESPN platform statistics, and I TRY not to mention anyone above ~55%*


Baker Mayfield (45.7%): I can’t believe I am saying this, because Baker has probably been the biggest QB bust of the season in terms of his ADP, but he is a solid spot-start pickup for the fantasy playoffs if you are streaming the QB position or have a QB on bye in week 12 (i.e., Mahomes, Murray, Cousins).  If you have room to stash Baker for a week, pick him up now before the owner of one of the bye-week-QBs mentioned above grab him.  Cleveland gets the red-hot Steelers at home on TNF this week, so it is not advised to start him this week.  However, in Week 12, the Browns play Miami.  Then, in Weeks 14 & 15, they see Cincy, then they are @ ARI.  Outside of matchups with PIT (two of the next three weeks) and BAL in Week 16, Baker has a favorable schedule.  With the Browns finally trying to force-feed OBJ, I see Baker’s stat line improving nicely in favorable matchups. 
Daniel Jones (42.3%): Jones has been extremely inconsistent this season, but he has shown flashes of a future star deserving of his #6 overall selection.  That is more than I can say for Mayfield, who famously questioned the Giants decision to take Jones so high, but that is beside the point I am trying to make here.  As much as Jones has disappointed against tougher opponents, let’s remember he is still a rookie on a bad team that has experienced a plethora of injuries to their offensive playmakers this season.  If your fantasy playoffs are Weeks 13-16, and Daniel Jones is available in your league, he is worth the add.  The Giants get GB at home, @PHI, home against MIA, and end in Week 16 @WSH.  None of those games particularly scare me in terms of matchups against QBs or WRs, but each team will give the Giants favorable game scripts for the passing game. Jones adds plenty of running upside to his game and has thrown the ball at least 35 times in six of the eight games he has started this season.  This should bode well against the 20th (GB), 12th (PHI), 9th (MIA), and 14th (WSH) ranked teams in terms of FP allowed to opposing QBs this season.     

Stand Alone Value –
Alexander Mattison (20.1%): Mattison makes the Waiver Wizard column again this week (3rd week in a row).  Got Cook?  Pick him up.  Open bench spot?  PICK.  HIM.  UP.  Just go get him.  You’re welcome.

Brian Hill (1.1%): Devonta Freeman is hurt yet again…shocker.  As a Falcons fan, this is something I have become accustomed to, and you should be too at this point.  I was one that was against paying him in the first place, but what do I know?  Well, he gets hurt ALL THE TIME.  I know that much.  The injury-prone designation is an understatement for Freeman, but enough talk about bad RBs and their contracts.  Brian Hill was originally a fifth-round pick by the Falcons back in 2017.  He spent time on the practice squad for the Falcons before being claimed by the Bengals, where he played in six games.  The Falcons claimed Hill back from Cincy in 2018, where he made an appearance in ten games for the Dirty Birds.  With Ito Smith on IR and Freeman likely headed for the same fate, Hill looks to take on the workhorse role in a good offense that is looking to establish the run going forward, and he is capable in the passing game.  Hill should be your #1 priority this week if you are in need of a RB. 

Wayne Gallman (7.2%): Saquon Barkley looked as if he suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday’s loss against the Jets, so Gallman may be a solid fill-in candidate if Barkley misses any time.  Barkley has not looked like himself since his Week 3 exit against Tampa Bay, so some think he may have returned too soon.  Regardless, Gallman performed admirably in his lone start against Washington in Week 4.  The G-Men have a bye this week, but get Chicago and GB the following two weeks, two teams that have been generous to the RB position of late. 

Will Fuller V (54.8%): Fuller is an extraordinary talent with tons of big-play upside.  However, the stigma, and really the reality of his injury-prone status, has hampered his time with the Texans.  Fuller has other-worldly speed and an impressive vertical that makes him one of the deadliest deep threats in the NFL.  When Fuller is healthy, he is one of Deshaun Watson’s favorite targets (at least 6 targets in every game except one, when healthy), and we all know the Texans like to pass the ball.  I would not start Fuller this week against a tough Ravens D, in his first game back from a hamstring injury (assuming he plays).  Houston has a tough schedule looking forward, but Deandre Hopkins should draw the #1 CB every week, leaving Fuller with advantageous matchups on the opposite side of the field.

Zach Pascal (43.6%): TY Hilton is still considered doubtful this week against JAX, so Pascal should be able to produce a solid fantasy outing.  You can throw out the game against Miami, as Brian Hoyer simply could not get anything going on the day.  Chalk that game up to the “any given Sunday” narrative and move on.  Pascal is still a talented WR that is being targeted often.  Pascal finished second on the team in targets on Sunday (tied Nyheim Hines w/ 7) with only Eric Ebron receiving more, and that was after Ebron essentially told Coach Frank Reich he wanted more targets…well, Eric, you got your wish, and your team lost to the Dolphins.  Happy?  Pascal will be fine with TY Hilton likely to miss at least one more game, potentially two.      

Deebo Samuel (10.0.%): Deebo Samuel is fresh off of his best game as a pro where he saw a season-high 11 targets.  Samuel cashed in on those 11 targets with 8 catches for 112 yards in SF’s first loss of the season.  Emmanuel Sanders (left game early due to rib injury) and George Kittle were non-factors in this game because of injuries, which thrust Deebo into the WR1 role for the 49ers.  Samuel did not disappoint.  If Manny Sanders and Kittle are forced to miss any more time, Samuel should continue to see a massive target share.  San Fran gets AZ next at home, a game in which they will look to rebound from their first loss to their division opponent Seahawks.  Last time SF played the Cards, Jimmy G had his best game as a pro, so if this game is anything like the last, Deebo should play a prominent role in the offense. 

Jacob Hollister (3.9%): Hollister has burst onto the TE scene, stepping over the decaying bones of TE’s past, and catching everything thrown his way.  In the desolate and barren wasteland that is the TE position in fantasy football, Hollister is a fresh blade of grass in an otherwise lifeless field of dirt.  Okay, that was a little dramatic, but it was fun.  Let’s get down to the facts.  Hollister was on the practice squad just a few months ago, and now he is quickly becoming one of Russell Wilson’s favorite targets.  Tyler Lockett left the game early last night with an apparent shin bruise that kept him in a local hospital overnight (sheesh).  If Lockett misses time, Josh Gordon, DK Metcalf, and Hollister will have to pick up the slack.  Hollister has received 16 targets in his last two games, catching 3 TDs in that span as well.  Hollister stepped into Will Dissly’s role without skipping a beat, and I expect that to continue with a pretty favorable ROS schedule for Seattle.

Jack Doyle(51.3%)/Eric Ebron(50.6%): Both Colts TEs are viable streaming options week to week.  Ebron received 12 targets in Week 10 against Miami, but only managed to catch five passes for 56 yards.  Assuming Brissett comes back in Week 11, Ebron should be able to haul in more than five receptions if he receives another double-digit target game.  If Hoyer remains the starter for another week, Doyle and Ebron will be streamable, but I would not count on consistent production. 

Derek Carr (36.7%): This is Carr’s THIRD consecutive week on the Waiver Wizard Column.  Although Carr did not impress in Week 10 against LAC, it was a short week against a division opponent (follow me and see how much I HATE playing QBs on TNF in division games).  Carr’s next three games look like the first time you saw a centerfold in your dad’s Playboy stash…I’m sure he is wide-eyed and bushy-tailed looking at the matchups.  Carr will see Cincy at home, a team that just saw Lamar Jackson put an entire defense on skates in one play, and had the speed option ran on them by the Raven’s top two QBs on the depth chart (not advisable).  Oh, and BAL benched Lamar Jackson in that game because they were up by so much…that should tell you everything you need to know.  After that, the Raiders will see the Jets and Chiefs.  The Jets just allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 308 yards and 4 TDs, while KC let Ryan Tannehill complete nearly 70% of his passes en route to throwing for 2 TDs, in a shocking upset of the Chiefs. 
Sam Darnold (11.6%): Darnold might have the easiest schedule in the league over the next month, and he seems to have regained SOME confidence after the Jets pulled out the narrow victory over their bunk-mates, the G-Men.  The Jets' next four games are @WSH, OAK, @CIN, and home against MIA.  Of those four matchups, only WSH is outside of the top-10 in terms of FP allowed to opposing QBs, and they aren’t far outside of that parameter at 14th.  Darnold should be a decent streaming option over the next month of the season.   
Nick Foles (9.6%): Foles has an interesting nickname that stems from his miraculous run in Philly when he took the underdog Eagles to the Super Bowl and won, as a backup.  Unfortunately, it is NSFW, so I will simply refer to him as “Big Richard Nick”…you do the dirty work.  Foles will return as the starter for the Jags in their Week 11 contest @IND.  This is not the ideal matchup to return to after missing the previous ten weeks, but he should be a viable streaming candidate from Weeks 13 on.  If you are looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, he could be a strong play in Weeks 13-16 against TB, LAC, @OAK, and @ATL. 

Derrius Guice(38.5%)/AP(55.7%): Guice and Peterson are both gaining ownership every week because of the potential of Guice, and the volume and production from AP.  Since Jay Gruden was fired, Peterson has seen at least 16 touches and eclipsed 75 yards in every game.  Guice looks to take away some of those touches from AP, but if you have room on your bench, I would stash Guice this week and start AP if you need an RB2/Flex play.  It is more of a “wait-and-see” scenario for Guice because of his recent IR stint just a year after tearing his ACL, but his potential is worth holding on to.

Peyton Barber (41.4%): Barber is disgusting, but, bye weeks happen.  Some rosters are relatively skimpy in the RB department (one of my leagues I have CMC, D. Freeman, & Burkhead...yea), so if you’re in that department and you just need to throw someone in your lineup, so you don’t get stuck with a goose egg, Barber is your guy.  No one knows what to think about the TB backfield situation.  It has seemed like more of a timeshare as Barber has seen double-digit carries in four of nine games this season, but he has only been in on more than 50% of offensive snaps once in those nine games (Week 2 @ CAR, 23 car/82 yds/1 TD).  Playing Barber, you are just hoping he vultures a goal-line carry or two from Ronald Jones to salvage his fantasy week. 

Pure Handcuffs –  (Same as last week)There isn’t much need for an in-depth analysis of these players.  However, should the guy ahead of them on the depth chart go down with an injury, they could become league-winners.  If you look down your roster and see a guy that you feel could be shipped off to Dropsville, stash your handcuff. *I removed Powell from this list because well…the Jets are not a good team.  If Bell is struggling to produce, I doubt Powell will provide much of a ceiling. 
Rashaad Penny (34.4%)
Reggie Bonnafon (1.8%)
Ryquell Armstead (1.7%)
Tony Pollard (11.9%)

Josh Gordon (56.5%): Gordon is appearing on the Waiver Wizard Column for the third consecutive week.  Tyler Lockett sustained somewhat of an unknown injury in Monday night’s game against San Fran, where he spent the night in a local hospital.  Coach Pete Caroll said it was “a pretty severe situation right now.” (Schefter, ESPN), which is not optimal for Lockett owners.  It seems like Lockett is poised to miss some time, so Gordon and D.K. Metcalf should see the majority of the targets in the Seattle offense.  Seattle has a bye week this week, so another two weeks in the system will do Gordon well.  If Lockett misses an extended period of time beyond Week 12 @ PHI, Gordon should carve out a substantial role for the Seahawks, who will look to keep pace with the now 8-1 49ers in the tight NFC West Division. 

DeVante Parker (44.6%): Parker also made the column each of the last three weeks.  I am starting to sound like a broken record on some of these players because I keep mentioning them week after week.  Parker will continue to see heavy volume as the season progresses, and the Dolphins have apparently rediscovered that they are an NFL team. Weeks 11 and 12 may be tougher matchups as Parker will most likely have to go up against the likes of Tre’Davious White (BUF) and Denzel Ward (CLE).  However, Parker has shown he can compete in tough matchups this season (5/55/1 @ BUF in Week 7 & 6/59/0 in Week 8 @ PIT).  In addition to Parker producing in tougher matchups, Miami faces PHI, @ NYJ, @NYG, and CIN Weeks 13-16 (fantasy playoffs for most), and I really like that schedule going forward.  I would say DeVante Parker is low-end WR2 ROS, with potential for high-upside WR2 potential as long as Fitzpatrick is throwing him the ball.   

Darius Slayton (12.9%): Slayton had quite the breakout game against the hapless Jets defense on Sunday, going for 121 yards and 2 TDs on 10 catches (14 targets).  I must remind you this was against the Jets; Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard did not play in this game either, and Barkley did not seem to be 100%.  Slayton is on bye this week, so he is by no means a must-add, but if you are a lock for the playoffs, he is a fine stash candidate as he will face GB, PHI, MIA, and WSH Weeks 13-16.  None of those defenses scare you. 

Nick Boyle (0.3%): Ole’ No-Neck Boyle is in a timeshare of sorts with Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, but he has seen his role increase lately.  Boyle has been in on at least 65% of the offensive snaps dating back to Week 5, and in the last two contests, has received 9 targets (caught all 9).  Boyle’s ascending role in the offense as a pass-catcher, mixed with Lamar Jackson’s affinity for the TE position, should make for a symbiotic relationship moving forward. 

Ryan Griffin (1.0%): We waited all year, or at least until Week 11, to finally see Chris Herndon return to the field, only to see him go on IR after one catch for 7 yards.  Suffice to say he disappointed a lot of people this season.  Now that we no longer have to wait on the potential of a Herndon-Darnold connection, we can focus on the guy that has been on the field all season and has produced at times.  Griffin is not the sexiest pickup, but he is worth a waiver claim if you are in desperate need of a TE.  

Darren Fells (26.0%): Fells has been wildly inconsistent in terms of targets, but the one area he has been successful in is TDs.  Fells is tied with Austin Hooper (#1 TE on the season) for TDs at the tight end position this season but has seen 36 fewer targets.  Obviously, that kind of efficiency will be tough to maintain, but Watson does target Fells in the Red Zone often.  Fells is an acceptable streamer on a week to week basis.

Jags D/ST (55.9%): @IND – I always target divisional games when streaming defenses (if it fits, of course).  The Jags have fairly solid against opposing offenses this season, and they get after the QB.  This should be a low-scoring game, so you can stream Sacksonville this week.

Browns D/ST (33.9%): VS. PIT - Remember that thing I said about divisional games and targeting their defenses…same concept here, but I absolutely LOVE the Browns D in a TNF matchup against a bad QB.  TNF is almost always low-scoring, especially when it consists of two division rivals. 

Raiders D/ST (1.3%): VS. CIN - What is not to love about this matchup...seriously, can you tell me?  Oakland has the pleasure of playing at home, a place they call the Black Hole, against a rookie QB with an atrocious offensive line.  What is not to like about that?  Nothing.  Absolutely nothing.  Stream the Raaayydaaasss this week!

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